https://doi.org/10.1051/epjconf/202531913004
Cross-correlation analysis for cosmic ray flux forecasting
1 Università degli Studi di Perugia, Italy
2 INFN – Perugia, Italy
3 Laboratório de Instrumentação e Física Experimental de Partículas, LIP - Lisbon, Portugal
4 INFN – Bologna, Italy
5 Centro Nacional de Aceleradores (CNA), Sevilla, España
* e-mail: david.pelosi@pg.infn.it
Published online: 6 March 2025
The study presents an effective approach for deriving and utilizing polarity-based cross-correlation functions to forecast Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) fluxes based on solar activity proxies. By leveraging a universal correlation framework calibrated with AMS-02 and PAMELA proton flux data under a numerical model, the methodology incorporates Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and a global spline fit. These techniques ensure robust handling of short-term fluctuations and smooth transitions during polarity reversals. The results have significant potential for space weather applications, enabling reliable GCR flux predictions critical for radiation risk assessments and operational planning in space exploration and satellite missions.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2025
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
